The drop in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) on February 20, 2020 from US $ 10,147 to as low as US $ 9,.505, is still considered reasonable by some observers. Precisely weakening it can encourage price increases thanks to the following 3 factors.
Eric Choy, an analyst at BlockStreetJournal, disagrees with the forecast that Bitcoin could skyrocket to US $ 20 thousand in the near future.
“I believe it’s even longer, at least later this year,” he said in response to a question from Blockchainmedia.
There are 2 of my arguments, said Choy, namely first, the continuation of uncertainty of traders and Bitcoin miners welcoming the Halving moment.
Secondly, the 0.618 Fibonacci Indicator shows Bitcoin at the level of US $ 13,300. That level is an advanced level of 0.382 over the past year.
“The 0.618 ratio can be referred to as resistance and support for some time, before entering the region of US $ 20,000,” he said.
Golden Cross Factor
On 18 February 2020, the most special Golden Cross Bitcoin reappeared, after something similar happened in January 2020 and earlier in 2015. Two days later the Bitcoin market collapsed rapidly to US $ 9,505.
Not a few who judge it as mere boasting, because how is it possible that the so-called Golden Cross can jump-start Bitcoin, but suddenly it has dropped significantly.
What some people don’t understand is that the time span of Golden Cross is long term. That is why it is used Moving Average 200 and Moving Average 50 daily (daily) as a reference.
Historically, some time after the Golden Cross appeared in January 2020, the price of Bitcoin also collapsed by 10 percent, then rose again. This situation provides an opportunity to re-accumulate.
Strong support of US $ 9,688
Over the past two days, Bitcoin has been at least at a strong support level at US $ 9,688 on a weekly basis. Bitcoin analysts, reported by Cointelegraph, said if Bitcoin is able to stay at that level within the next two or three days, it can be used as a bullish signal.
Based on data from Digitalik, with the Stock-to-Flow and Cycle Repeat models, until March 23, 2020, Bitcoin is estimated to move relatively sideway. With the current reference price, US $ 9,660, on February 26, 2020, Bitcoin is predicted to enter the region of US $ 10,156. However, it quickly dropped back to the area of US $ 9,675.
After March 27, 2020, Bitcoin is forecast to rise from US $ 9,880 to US $ 11,465 (March 29, 2020).
Bitcoin Halving which is expected to fall on May 12, 2020, is still considered an important factor.
TradeBlock recently revealed that the gross cost to mine one Bitcoin when Halving is around US $ 15,062. With the current relatively stable hash rate, the cost to mine one Bitcoin will drop to US $ 12,525.
According to TradeBlock, there is a possibility that the price of Bitcoin may fall after Halving and still have a small impact on the hash rate, because large miners operate in the long run with the availability of cheap electricity and mining equipment supplies.
“With that scenario, the miners might be reluctant to sell the Bitcoin that they are mining, which in turn causes supply in the market to fall, potentially pushing up prices,” he explained.